69,421? NOT FOR LONG. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's population projections, Eau Claire County is one of few counties in the state expected to show robust growth over the next three decades.

Within a few decades, Wisconsin will start to shrink, the state Department of Administration says. Don’t blame Ozempic or some fad diet. The shrinking won’t happen to our waistlines: It will be our population that will begin to diminish, state demographers estimated in a report released in early January. The projections are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 headcount and forecast populations across the state in 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Wisconsin’s population is expected to be somewhat stable during the current decade, but will begin to decrease slightly in the 2030s and 2040s. While the state had nearly 5.9 million people in the 2020 census, that figure is projected to decline to around 5.7 million by 2050.

Closer to home, population growth has been comparatively strong: Eau Claire County’s population rose 7% between 2010 and 2020, and is expected to grow an additional 4% in the current decade, making it the fifth-fastest-growing of the state’s 72 counties during that period.

In fact, Eau Claire County is forecast to have some of the most robust growth in the state over the next three decades: The county’s population is projected to grow by 12% between 2020 and 2050, a rate surpassed only by Trempealeau County (34%) and Dane County (39%). In 25 years, the DOA predicts, Eau Claire County will have 118,625 residents.

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THE EAU CLAIRE AREA'S POPULATION HAS BENEFITED FROM A STEADY LABOR MARKET, EVEN AS THE PRIMARY INDUSTRIES HAVE SHIFTED.

For example, there's less manufacturing but more service, recreation, and entertainment jobs.

Other west-central Wisconsin counties are also estimated to post healthy growth by 2050, including St. Croix (10%), Clark (9%), and Jackson (7%).

These are among only 12 counties whose populations are anticipated to grow, meaning the state’s other 60 counties can expect shrinking census rolls. The latter group includes Dunn County (expected to lose about 3,000 residents, or 6.5% of its population) and Chippewa County (expected to decline by about 300 people, or about 0.5%).

The reasons for the impending population slump are no surprise. First, Wisconsin women are having fewer children than their counterparts in previous generations. Second, we’re all getting older – and that ultimately means one thing: As the report states, “In coming decades, Wisconsin’s largest generation, the baby boomers, will enter higher-mortality age groups.”

But there’s also a wild card in the mix – migration – which is harder to predict, especially in an era of economic and climate fluctuations. That’s something that folks like Scott Allen, executive director of the West Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission are beginning to contend with. The agency, based in Eau Claire, assists with physical, social and economic development in a seven-county region.

The Eau Claire area’s population, Allen said, has benefited from a steady labor market, even as the primary industries have shifted. For example, there’s less manufacturing but more service, recreation, and entertainment jobs.

The presence of UW-Eau Claire is also a demographic benefit. “The university tends to just be a steady contributor to the younger population in terms of the in-migration,” he said. As a result, data shows, Eau Claire County has a population that is slightly younger and more educated than the state as a whole.

The planning commission typically focuses on the coming five or 10 years, Allen said. (For instance, it’s now updating its five-year Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy.) So while the long-term population forecasting is interesting, it tends to “get fuzzy” the further out it goes, he said.
For example, he said, other forecasts show continued population growth in Chippewa County, rather than a gradual decline.

“We’re seeing something different in 2040 and beyond than the state (is),” Allen said. In other words, the predicted slimming of Wisconsin’s population should be taken with a grain of salt.

Explore the state Department of Administration’s population projections at doa.wi.gov/Pages/LocalGovtsGrants/Population_Projections.aspx.